PlanB, an anonymous Bitcoin expert, revealed in a recent tweet on May 16 that he was expecting a second phase of last year’s Bitcoin bull market in the last months of the year, but that the bull market will finish in Q1 2022. PlanB has a reputation for being able to properly forecast prices. Despite not having a flawless track record, his estimates have been shown to be generally accurate, thanks to his usage of the Stock-to-Flow model.
Dec 2021 I was still hoping for a 2nd leg of the bull market. But in Q1 2022 it became clear that this bitcoin bull market was over. We entered a bear market since Apr 2021 peak (yes ATH was Nov 2021). Now we are creating a bottom. Then a new bull market will start. BTC cycles. pic.twitter.com/cPpAnNCklx
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 16, 2022
After most experts and investors had given up on Bitcoin, PlanB forecasted a $1 trillion market cap in 2019, when the currency had fallen to $3K from its $17K peak in 2018. Last February, Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion. PlanB issued a series of projections following the Bitcoin meltdown in June of last year, following an Elon Musk tweet: the Dutch analyst forecasted values of $63K, $98K, and $135K for October, November, and December of 2021, respectively in a tweet on June 20, 2021.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
The October price of 63k was correct. In November, he stated that his November price estimate was based on his floor model rather than his S2F model, disclosing that he makes predictions using three models: the S2F Model, Floor Model, and On-chain Model.
Experts forecast Bitcoin price
In the middle of BTC’s current bear market, several additional analysts have chimed in with their ideas. Last year, Carol Alexander of Sussex University predicted that BTC would reach $10K in 2022.
Ian Balina, a Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Evangelist, projected that Bitcoin will ultimately reach a price of $100K to $150K but did not specify when. He believes that the increased interest in crypto and Web3 will have an impact on a long-term price increase in BTC.
Bitcoin has not escaped the current crypto bear market. As of press time, the first-born cryptocurrency was trading at $29.8K, a two-year low. Other assets have also dropped, with Terra’s LUNA dropping by 100% in a couple of days owing to the UST stablecoin issue.
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