The cryptocurrency world is buzzing with anticipation as Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023. This surge in optimism comes on the heels of a recent Grayscale victory against the federal securities regulator, which has shifted the landscape for potential ETF approvals. In a post on X (Twitter) dated August 30th, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, shared that the chances of ETF approval have been elevated to an encouraging 75%, up from a previous 65%. This shift is attributed to the decisive stance taken by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in a recent case. Balchunas, along with Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein, emphasize that the unanimous repudiation of the SEC’s arguments by the judges puts the regulatory agency in a difficult position to justify further denials as impending deadlines loom.
Table of Contents
An Unprecedented Legal Victory
The recent Grayscale victory serves as a significant turning point in the journey toward a Bitcoin ETF approval. The United States Court of Appeals Circuit’s unanimous decision to reject the SEC’s arguments has sent shockwaves through the industry. With this unprecedented legal victory, the door to ETF approvals appears to have swung open wider than ever before. The judges’ unequivocal stance has not only bolstered the chances of approval but also posed a considerable challenge to the SEC’s ability to sustain their resistance against ETF applications.
Elevated Approval Odds and Expert Insights
Eric Balchunas, an esteemed figure in the ETF analysis realm, has weighed in on the implications of this legal victory. In his own post on X, James Seyffart added that the odds of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals becoming a “done deal” by Q4 2024 have now soared to a remarkable 95%. This prediction underscores the newfound confidence within the industry that the tides are turning in favor of ETF approval. Balchunas, with his deep understanding of the market, adds another layer to the analysis, highlighting the impact of recent legal and public relations setbacks faced by the SEC. He asserts that a denial by the SEC would be politically untenable in light of these developments.
Imminent Deadlines and the Path Forward
The coming days hold crucial decisions as seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” verdict by the SEC. These applications, submitted by prominent entities including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie, represent a pivotal moment for the industry. Balchunas speculates that while the SEC might consider delaying these upcoming decisions, the most likely outcome is an unexpected approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs in a unified decision. This, he suggests, would be a pivotal moment that could reshape the trajectory of the crypto market.
