Top ETF expert, Eric Balchunas on June 27 states that investment management company BlackRock has a 50% probability of receiving its Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) authorisation.
Balchunas forecast follows an observation by Elliott Stein, a senior litigation expert of top media, who currently estimates that Grayscale’s possibilities of succeeding in its legal battle with the SEC are 70%.
The SEC could consider BlackRock’s ETF registration positively as a chance to “save face” by authorising an ETF from a “trusted ‘adult’ TradFi” firm instead of Grayscale, according to Balchunas.
Notingly, the two sides have exchanged legal files back and forth since Grayscale protested the SEC’s decision to deny its request in June 2022 and on March 7 three judges of the U.S. federal appellate body heard their statements.
According to calculations, Grayscale has a 70 percent probability of succeeding in its case against the SEC regarding the company’s attempt to transform the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF.
Due to the fact that “all three judges on the committee seemed to side with Grayscale” based on their “lines of questioning,” Grayscale’s chances rose to 40% after the parties’ oral arguments were over, according to Stein.
The industry has recently focused heavily on applications for Bitcoin ETFs, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie joining $10 trillion asset management giant BlackRock in the queue for the SEC’s clearance.
The virtual currency marketplace would be open to companies with a collective $27 trillion in assets under management if the SEC ultimately authorizes the proposals from the likes of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America hoping to offer same services.
As per Google Finance, GBTC has increased by about 134% in 2023 to $19.47, which is its highest price since around May 13, 2022, although the outcome of Grayscale’s appeal is still pending.
Moreover, citing data from YCharts indicates the discount between the share price of GBTC and its total net asset value decreased to 31% on June 26.
This is the lowest level seen since September 12 of last year. A reduced trust discount rate suggests that investors’ perceptions of the good or service might be improving.
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